This morning I listened to Li Nannan's "How to Make Entrepreneurial Decisions" on Dedao, which mentioned that "entrepreneurs don't solve problems under favorable conditions, but rather change the constraints themselves."
This corresponds to what Liu Run from Five-Minute Business School said: "Ordinary people change results, excellent people change causes, and top-tier experts change the model." Those who truly influence outcomes are the ones who change the model and transform the constraints.
In the discussion, decisions are broadly categorized into three types:
First Type of Decision: Personal Experience Decision System
Although the situation is new, the decision-maker has experienced something similar before. In this case, you activate your "personal experience decision system," and as long as you feel confident, you can proceed.
For example, producing different online courses—while the content varies, having prior experience in course production means you can gauge how much manpower and time are needed, and complete tasks like surveys, fundraising, filming, and launching before the deadline.
Second Type of Decision: Management Decision System
The situation is new, and while your personal experience is limited, you can leverage your team's collective strength to analyze it. This requires activating the "management decision system"—building a team with specialized expertise to evaluate the decision.
For example, when a company decides whether to invest in a new project, it needs financial analysis, legal review, and business evaluation, and possibly environmental assessments and consumer surveys. You synthesize expert opinions to determine resource allocation.
Third Type of Decision: Entrepreneurial Decision System
This is the most challenging scenario—the situation exceeds not only your personal experience but everyone's experience. This requires the "entrepreneurial decision system." The core of entrepreneurial decision-making lies in recognizing "long-term value." Put simply: if I believe this is valuable, I do it.
Long-term value is based on your insights about the market and industry, and your assessment of whether the decision will bring sustained benefits—not short-term gains. This heavily relies on the entrepreneur's mindset, conviction, and execution capability.
For example, in 2005, when Apple approached Intel to manufacture chips, Intel's management decision system evaluated the risks, costs, and projected sales volume, concluding that Apple's phone project would be unprofitable. But Samsung's decision chain was remarkably short—they decided to just go for it. When the iPhone launched, it sold 100 times more than Intel projected, and Samsung profited significantly.
However, the article also notes that truly breakthrough products have no discernible pattern, because they transcend everyone's experience and cannot be predicted.
